Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki win on 2026-11-07?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 53¢ · $509 held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$508.79
-$8.95
54.5¢ → 52.5¢
-4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 54.6¢ | $303.21 | $294.16 | -$9.05 | 51% 25736-24442 (50178) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $156.03 | $154.16 | +$2.25 | 50% 21164-21421 (42585) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 54.1¢ | $41.91 | $40.26 | -$1.66 | 50% 25814-25509 (51323) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 53.5¢ | $10.7 | $10.4 | -$0.3 | 58% 46675-33635 (80310) |
 rayvanmechelen<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $10 | $9.81 | -$0.19 | 53% 2573-2253 (4826) |
Invested
$303.21
Value
$294.16
PnL
-$9.05
Record
51%
25736-24442 (50178)
Invested
$156.03
Value
$154.16
PnL
+$2.25
Record
50%
21164-21421 (42585)
Invested
$41.91
Value
$40.26
PnL
-$1.66
Record
50%
25814-25509 (51323)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.7
Value
$10.4
PnL
-$0.3
Record
58%
46675-33635 (80310)
rayvanmechelen<$100Invested
$10
Value
$9.81
PnL
-$0.19
Record
53%
2573-2253 (4826)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.