Will Jaxson Dart have 5.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 82¢ · $464 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$463.96
$136.43
60.1¢ → 81.7¢
+36% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robbb | Noavg 67.4¢ | $246.45 | $299.33 | +$53.87 | 77% 2132-646 (2778) |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 45¢ | $79.16 | $143.97 | +$64.56 | 64% 1081-614 (1695) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $13.93 | $12.42 | +$18.48 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yes | $8.79 | $8.04 | -$0.66 | 59% 843-598 (1441) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.02 | $0.21 | +$0.19 | 19% 2981-12794 (15775) |
RobbbInvested
$246.45
Value
$299.33
PnL
+$53.87
Record
77%
2132-646 (2778)
Invested
$79.16
Value
$143.97
PnL
+$64.56
Record
64%
1081-614 (1695)
Invested
$13.93
Value
$12.42
PnL
+$18.48
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$8.79
Value
$8.04
PnL
-$0.66
Record
59%
843-598 (1441)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.21
PnL
+$0.19
Record
19%
2981-12794 (15775)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.