Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Josh Allen have 3,599.5+ passing yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 24¢ · $412 held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$412.23
-$328.26
46.8¢ → 23.5¢
-50% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
52h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 CUTJALENHURTSCTR | Noavg 48¢ | $410 | $165 | -$245 | 52% 6012-5617 (11629) |
 extractive-manatee | Yesavg 75.5¢ | $309.41 | $153.95 | -$20.03 | 34% 602-1158 (1760) |
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 43.2¢ | $133.49 | $72.68 | -$60.81 | 65% 956-504 (1460) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 71¢ | $20.2 | $18.51 | -$1.53 | 14% 508-3080 (3588) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 33.5¢ | $19 | $2.09 | -$0.89 | 58% 777-559 (1336) |
CUTJALENHURTSCTRInvested
$410
Value
$165
PnL
-$245
Record
52%
6012-5617 (11629)
extractive-manateeInvested
$309.41
Value
$153.95
PnL
-$20.03
Record
34%
602-1158 (1760)
Invested
$133.49
Value
$72.68
PnL
-$60.81
Record
65%
956-504 (1460)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$20.2
Value
$18.51
PnL
-$1.53
Record
14%
508-3080 (3588)
Invested
$19
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$0.89
Record
58%
777-559 (1336)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.