Will Josh Jacobs have 10+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 77¢ · $855 held · ends Jan 27, 2027

Yes23¢No77¢Ends Wed, Jan 27, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

Total Value

$854.86

Combined PnL

-$85.38

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes23%

No77%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$846.54

Total Shares876

Combined PnL-$92.91

Yes4 traders

Total Value$8.32

Total Shares248

Combined PnL+$7.53

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ND ndb1	Noavg 86.9¢	$874.1	$846.54	-$92.91	64% 1081-614 (1695)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$15.54	$3.72	+$10.82	55% 5255-4341 (9596)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$4.71	$2.8	-$1.91	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
CR crckrCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$3.07	$1.61	-$1.46	28% 797-2091 (2888)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$0.12	$0.19	+$0.08	19% 2981-12794 (15775)

ndb1

Invested

$874.1

Value

$846.54

PnL

-$92.91

Record

64%

1081-614 (1695)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.54

Value

$3.72

PnL

+$10.82

Record

55%

5255-4341 (9596)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.71

Value

$2.8

PnL

-$1.91

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

crckrCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.07

Value

$1.61

PnL

-$1.46

Record

28%

797-2091 (2888)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.19

PnL

+$0.08

Record

19%

2981-12794 (15775)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 77%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.4%

76.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$27.52

Max Loss

-$100.00

127.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.