Will Juwan Johnson have 374.5+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 93¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$1.6K
$532.99
Research grade
NeutralYes at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Robbb | Yesavg 79.3¢ | $852.71 | $1.2K | +$298.49 | 77% 2132-646 (2778) |
CR crckrCTR | Noavg 6.9¢ | $71.94 | $253.97 | +$228.67 | 28% 797-2091 (2888) |
ND ndb1CTR | Noavg 25¢ | $125 | $100.74 | -$34.03 | 64% 1081-614 (1695) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.2¢ | $51.04 | $53.05 | +$42.01 | 33% 20011-40834 (60845) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Noavg 16.1¢ | $6.54 | $0.73 | -$2.16 | 59% 843-598 (1441) |
RobbbInvested
$852.71
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$298.49
Record
77%
2132-646 (2778)
Invested
$71.94
Value
$253.97
PnL
+$228.67
Record
28%
797-2091 (2888)
Invested
$125
Value
$100.74
PnL
-$34.03
Record
64%
1081-614 (1695)
Invested
$51.04
Value
$53.05
PnL
+$42.01
Record
33%
20011-40834 (60845)
Invested
$6.54
Value
$0.73
PnL
-$2.16
Record
59%
843-598 (1441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.