Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Dinamo Minsk, while the market favors HC Dynamo Moscow (95%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
KHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. HC Dynamo Moscow
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Dinamo Minsk (40%) · Dinamo Minsk at 5.0¢ · $316 held · ended Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Dinamo Minsk
5
Dinamo Minsk 40%
$315.84
$7.17
53.5¢ → 5¢
-91% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidDinamo Minsk at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors HC Dynamo Moscow 95%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Dinamo Minskavg 54.6¢ | $182.69 | $187.43 | +$4.74 | 50% 19450-19817 (39267) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 45.5¢ | $49.59 | $47.96 | -$1.63 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 44.9¢ | $50.07 | $45.18 | -$1.18 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | HC Dynamo Moscowavg 62.9¢ | $27.68 | $32.34 | +$4.66 | 85% 5885-1004 (6889) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Dinamo Minskavg 21.3¢ | $2.36 | $2.94 | +$0.58 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
Invested
$182.69
Value
$187.43
PnL
+$4.74
Record
50%
19450-19817 (39267)
Invested
$49.59
Value
$47.96
PnL
-$1.63
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$50.07
Value
$45.18
PnL
-$1.18
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$27.68
Value
$32.34
PnL
+$4.66
Record
85%
5885-1004 (6889)
Invested
$2.36
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$0.58
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.