Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 93% (5607–430, n=6037) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.9K
Record
5607W / 430L
Win Rate
93.0%
of 6037 settled
Batting Avg
64.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#189
Source
PM monthly #953
Trades
900
Markets
6,742
Volume
$563.3K
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 13 on the consensus side (46%)- Will Wolfsberger AC win on 2026-11-01?No $299 · now 100¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Lorenzo SonegoLorenzo Sonego $21 · now 72¢ · in at 57¢against the consensus (Adolfo Vallejo)
- KHL: Dinamo Minsk vs. HC Dynamo MoscowHC Dynamo Moscow $18 · now 70¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Dinamo Minsk)
- Aquila Basket Trento vs. Maxima RomaAquila Basket Trento $10 · now 39¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Maxima Roma)
- Villa Maria: Ian Luca Vertberger vs Denis KlokIan Luca Vertberger $10 · now 94¢ · in at 61¢against the consensus (Denis Klok)
- W75 Poitiers: Veronika Podrez vs Oceane DodinVeronika Podrez $10 · now 90¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Courmayeur: Noma Noha Akugue vs Alina CharaevaAlina Charaeva $7 · now 74¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (80% of 11)
- Villa Maria: Rocco Valente vs Ryo TabataRyo Tabata $7 · now 47¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
Specialties
1,476 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 91¢- Other Sports
+31 pts
side won 98% of 84 · avg entry 67¢
ROI +24%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 99% of 1023 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +3%
- NHL
+11 pts
side won 92% of 84 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 63% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 82% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 91% of 136)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 100% of 1288)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.