Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.3K
$125.74
87.2¢ → 98.2¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
88 881112 | Noavg 92.2¢ | $780.47 | $831.26 | +$50.79 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
11 11122 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $224.2 | $292.44 | +$68.24 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
SU surf | Noavg 85¢ | $137.12 | $158.42 | +$21.29 | 52% 381-352 (733) |
 Optimus-<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $42.28 | $51.9 | +$9.62 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
 Dr.mettCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $26 | $1.8 | -$24.2 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
Invested
$780.47
Value
$831.26
PnL
+$50.79
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
Invested
$224.2
Value
$292.44
PnL
+$68.24
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
Invested
$137.12
Value
$158.42
PnL
+$21.29
Record
52%
381-352 (733)
Optimus-<$100Invested
$42.28
Value
$51.9
PnL
+$9.62
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
Dr.mettCTR<$100Invested
$26
Value
$1.8
PnL
-$24.2
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.