Consensus PnL $32K · win rate 63% (275–165, n=440) · PM monthly #56 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$32.4K
Record
275W / 165L
Win Rate
63.0%
of 440 settled
Batting Avg
65.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1019
Source
PM monthly #56
Trades
1,116
Markets
680
Volume
$11.2M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 9 on the consensus side (44%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $176K · now 65¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?No $5.2K · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 26)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes $974 · now 14¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Kristi Noem impeached in 2026?No $158 · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Yes $69 · now 3¢ · in at 37¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Yes $8 · now 17¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $6 · now 16¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $6 · now 16¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (82% of 33)
Specialties
382 settled consensus markets · held side won 65% at an average entry of 51¢- Geopolitics
+32 pts
side won 90% of 50 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +38%
- NFL
+36 pts
side won 84% of 19 · avg entry 48¢
ROI +47%
- Politics
+13 pts
side won 70% of 102 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 37%(won 24% of 140)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 71% of 55)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 70% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 40%(won 98% of 154)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.