Consensus PnL $91K · win rate 61% (984–629, n=1613) · hand-picked wallet · holds 58 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$91.4K
Record
984W / 629L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1613 settled
Batting Avg
63.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1108
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
20,982
Markets
2,362
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
58 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 58 on the consensus side (59%)- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $5.1K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $5.0K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.1K · now 73¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
- Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?Yes $3.1K · now 75¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Yes $2.9K · now 49¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseYes $2.3K · now 72¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (80% of 86)
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Yes $1.5K · now 18¢ · in at 24¢against the consensus (No)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.3K · now 27¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,605 settled consensus markets · held side won 58% at an average entry of 53¢- Geopolitics
+8 pts
side won 66% of 322 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +10%
- Crypto
+14 pts
side won 67% of 39 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +9%
- Politics
+4 pts
side won 54% of 176 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 46% of 48 at an average 49¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −8%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 29%(won 18% of 472)
- 30–50¢: 15%(won 43% of 242)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 65% of 315)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 93% of 576)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.