Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-11-22?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 22
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.4K
-$19.1
93.1¢ → 92¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CI cigarettes | Noavg 93¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$35.22 | 52% 5263-4776 (10039) |
BI Bigggggggg | Noavg 93.3¢ | $582.25 | $567.79 | -$14.46 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $211.52 | $222.45 | +$10.93 | 50% 1318-1340 (2658) |
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $30.23 | $29.58 | -$0.65 | 28% 153-400 (553) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 91¢ | $136.3 | $10.12 | +$20.29 | 46% 178-207 (385) |
Invested
$1,637.51
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$35.22
Record
52%
5263-4776 (10039)
Invested
$582.25
Value
$567.79
PnL
-$14.46
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
Invested
$211.52
Value
$222.45
PnL
+$10.93
Record
50%
1318-1340 (2658)
Invested
$30.23
Value
$29.58
PnL
-$0.65
Record
28%
153-400 (553)
VeryLucky888Invested
$136.3
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$20.29
Record
46%
178-207 (385)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.