Will RC Deportivo A Coruña win on 2026-11-07?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$2.4K
$5.88
69.8¢ → 68.5¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 69.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$22.44 | 58% 47486-34282 (81768) |
LI LimousinCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $617.79 | $616.8 | +$29.85 | 50% 1843-1850 (3693) |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $251.82 | $250.99 | -$0.12 | 64% 10181-5719 (15900) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $154.9 | $154.9 | -$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68.6¢ | $96.91 | $96.09 | -$0.12 | |
GC GC-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $226.51 | $226.51 | -$0.53 | 64% 10178-5767 (15945) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 31¢ | $155 | $155 | +$0 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $71.51 | $71.51 | -$0.53 | |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $97.1 | $96.94 | -$0.16 | 51% 27202-25761 (52963) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $34.88 | $34.13 | -$0.75 | 49% 1833-1925 (3758) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $21.02 | $20.4 | -$0.62 | 52% 9014-8167 (17181) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$1,160.02
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$22.44
Record
58%
47486-34282 (81768)
Invested
$617.79
Value
$616.8
PnL
+$29.85
Record
50%
1843-1850 (3693)
Invested
$251.82
Value
$250.99
PnL
-$0.12
Record
64%
10181-5719 (15900)
Both legs:
Invested
$226.51
Value
$226.51
PnL
-$0.53
Record
64%
10178-5767 (15945)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.1
Value
$96.94
PnL
-$0.16
Record
51%
27202-25761 (52963)
Invested
$34.88
Value
$34.13
PnL
-$0.75
Record
49%
1833-1925 (3758)
Invested
$21.02
Value
$20.4
PnL
-$0.62
Record
52%
9014-8167 (17181)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.