Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 50¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$5.8K
$61.4
49.1¢ → 49.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
99h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shaillakhaniCTR | Overavg 49.2¢ | $5.1K | $5.2K | +$58.15 | 34% 352-688 (1040) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Overavg 47.7¢ | $252.33 | $262.02 | +$10.98 | 50% 24077-24172 (48249) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 53¢ | $265 | $252.5 | -$7.5 | 58% 53643-38159 (91802) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $79.5 | $75.75 | -$2.25 | 48% 71959-77656 (149615) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $55.38 | $57.96 | +$2.57 | 57% 60850-45925 (106775) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 53.4¢ | $15.92 | $15.06 | -$0.56 | 53% 28233-25512 (53745) |
Invested
$5,130.14
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$58.15
Record
34%
352-688 (1040)
Invested
$252.33
Value
$262.02
PnL
+$10.98
Record
50%
24077-24172 (48249)
VeryLucky888Invested
$265
Value
$252.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
58%
53643-38159 (91802)
Invested
$79.5
Value
$75.75
PnL
-$2.25
Record
48%
71959-77656 (149615)
Invested
$55.38
Value
$57.96
PnL
+$2.57
Record
57%
60850-45925 (106775)
Invested
$15.92
Value
$15.06
PnL
-$0.56
Record
53%
28233-25512 (53745)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.