Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 0 - 2 Athletic Club?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 55¢ · $836 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
$836.47
$570.28
70¢ → 54.7¢
-22% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 55%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+12 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
96h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $13.89 | $453 | +$439.11 | 25% 1322-4009 (5331) |
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 94¢ | $254.5 | $139.21 | -$100.02 | 57% 60639-45678 (106317) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $4.08 | $68.4 | +$64.32 | 48% 70392-76030 (146422) |
 SilentSharkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.5¢ | $0.75 | $67.95 | +$67.2 | 58% 196-140 (336) |
AS asdkjhsad<$100 | Noavg 0.1¢ | $0.09 | $47.69 | +$47.6 | — |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6¢ | $4.55 | $34.33 | +$29.78 | 57% 24733-18312 (43045) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.3¢ | $3.6 | $25.88 | +$22.28 | 50% 48656-48220 (96876) |
Invested
$13.89
Value
$453
PnL
+$439.11
Record
25%
1322-4009 (5331)
Invested
$254.5
Value
$139.21
PnL
-$100.02
Record
57%
60639-45678 (106317)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$68.4
PnL
+$64.32
Record
48%
70392-76030 (146422)
SilentSharkCTR<$100Invested
$0.75
Value
$67.95
PnL
+$67.2
Record
58%
196-140 (336)
Invested
$0.09
Value
$47.69
PnL
+$47.6
Record
—
Invested
$4.55
Value
$34.33
PnL
+$29.78
Record
57%
24733-18312 (43045)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$25.88
PnL
+$22.28
Record
50%
48656-48220 (96876)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.