Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 0 Athletic Club?

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 59¢ · $835 held · ended Oct 10

Yes41¢No59¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 38%

Total Value

$834.88

Combined PnL

$490.12

Smart Money Entry

89.8¢ → 59¢

-34% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes41%

No59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$624.01

Total Shares1,515

Combined PnL+$566.86

No3 traders

Total Value$210.87

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$76.74

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.89	$410	+$396.11	25% 1319-4004 (5323)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 90¢	$263.49	$155.46	-$81.68	59% 52427-37141 (89568)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$77.9	$77.9	+$72.77	21% 569-2202 (2771)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$23.17	$71.01	+$48.67	57% 60639-45678 (106317)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.1¢	$15.6	$57.4	+$41.8	57% 17059-13038 (30097)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 89¢	$44.5	$29.5	-$15	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 89¢	$5.96	$25.91	+$19.95	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.19	$7.7	+$7.51	58% 196-140 (336)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.89

Value

$410

PnL

+$396.11

Record

25%

1319-4004 (5323)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$263.49

Value

$155.46

PnL

-$81.68

Record

59%

52427-37141 (89568)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$77.9

Value

$77.9

PnL

+$72.77

Record

21%

569-2202 (2771)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.17

Value

$71.01

PnL

+$48.67

Record

57%

60639-45678 (106317)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$15.6

Value

$57.4

PnL

+$41.8

Record

57%

17059-13038 (30097)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$44.5

Value

$29.5

PnL

-$15

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$5.96

Value

$25.91

PnL

+$19.95

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.19

Value

$7.7

PnL

+$7.51

Record

58%

196-140 (336)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 59%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Late

102h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Diverging

ctrYes 50% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.