Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 1 - 1 Athletic Club?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 54¢ · $779 held · ended Oct 10

Yes47¢No53¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$779.14

Combined PnL

$522.34

Smart Money Entry

85.8¢ → 53.5¢

-38% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes47%

No54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$593.34

Total Shares1,276

Combined PnL+$572.15

No6 traders

Total Value$185.8

Total Shares273

Combined PnL-$49.81

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$13.21	$442.22	+$429.01	25% 1319-4004 (5323)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100	Yes	$98.58	$98.58	+$92.85	21% 569-2202 (2771)
NM NM-P	Noavg 86¢	$108.5	$67.5	-$41	58% 22573-16672 (39245)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 85.6¢	$84.95	$53.07	-$31.25	57% 60639-45678 (106317)
SilentSharkCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$2.26	$52.55	+$50.29	58% 196-140 (336)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 86¢	$7.4	$43.15	+$35.75	48% 70301-75984 (146285)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 86¢	$19.87	$12.36	-$7.51	57% 24691-18283 (42974)
PA Pan9X<$100	Noavg 85¢	$9.07	$5.71	-$3.36	52% 27288-24794 (52082)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 86¢	$6.45	$4.01	-$2.44	50% 48622-48197 (96819)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$13.21

Value

$442.22

PnL

+$429.01

Record

25%

1319-4004 (5323)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.58

Value

$98.58

PnL

+$92.85

Record

21%

569-2202 (2771)

NM-P

Invested

$108.5

Value

$67.5

PnL

-$41

Record

58%

22573-16672 (39245)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$84.95

Value

$53.07

PnL

-$31.25

Record

57%

60639-45678 (106317)

SilentSharkCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.26

Value

$52.55

PnL

+$50.29

Record

58%

196-140 (336)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$7.4

Value

$43.15

PnL

+$35.75

Record

48%

70301-75984 (146285)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$19.87

Value

$12.36

PnL

-$7.51

Record

57%

24691-18283 (42974)

Pan9X<$100

Invested

$9.07

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$3.36

Record

52%

27288-24794 (52082)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$6.45

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$2.44

Record

50%

48622-48197 (96819)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 54%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Late

107h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.