Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 1 Athletic Club?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 39¢ · $515 held · ended Oct 10

Yes39¢No61¢Ended Sat, Oct 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 71%

Total Value

$515.48

Combined PnL

$453.45

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes39%

No62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$496.11

Total Shares1,289

Combined PnL+$463.06

No2 traders

Total Value$19.37

Total Shares32

Combined PnL-$9.61

Yes — 71%No — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 1.4¢	$12.44	$344.96	+$332.52	28% 1138-2939 (4077)
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR	Yes	$104.52	$104.52	+$97.19	25% 500-1510 (2010)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$2.86	$40.81	+$37.95	48% 61940-66801 (128741)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 92¢	$17.48	$11.69	-$5.8	58% 51715-37601 (89316)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 92¢	$11.5	$7.69	-$3.81	58% 47081-33963 (81044)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Yesavg 99¢	$10	$3.89	-$6.11	66% 24357-12432 (36789)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.4	$1.93	+$1.53	64% 10070-5629 (15699)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$12.44

Value

$344.96

PnL

+$332.52

Record

28%

1138-2939 (4077)

0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR

Yes

Invested

$104.52

Value

$104.52

PnL

+$97.19

Record

25%

500-1510 (2010)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.86

Value

$40.81

PnL

+$37.95

Record

48%

61940-66801 (128741)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$17.48

Value

$11.69

PnL

-$5.8

Record

58%

51715-37601 (89316)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$11.5

Value

$7.69

PnL

-$3.81

Record

58%

47081-33963 (81044)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$3.89

PnL

-$6.11

Record

66%

24357-12432 (36789)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$1.93

PnL

+$1.53

Record

64%

10070-5629 (15699)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 39%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

58h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance40.7%

38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$145.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

245.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.