Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Exact Score: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid 2 - 1 Athletic Club?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 39¢ · $528 held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$528.18
$461.05
Research grade
NeutralYes at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
103h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LO lovedudleyCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $12.44 | $344.96 | +$332.52 | 25% 1311-3950 (5261) |
0X 0x62D56a93516DB0181F7cDEa919191EC07Fa43D4F-1793322863179CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $7.34 | $104.52 | +$97.19 | 20% 551-2169 (2720) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $7.46 | $43.89 | +$36.42 | 48% 70219-75923 (146142) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $19 | $11.69 | -$5.8 | 57% 60635-45670 (106305) |
 SilentSharkCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.5 | $9.63 | +$9.13 | 59% 196-139 (335) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $12.5 | $7.69 | -$3.81 | 59% 52299-37045 (89344) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Yesavg 99¢ | $10.1 | $3.89 | -$6.11 | 65% 25410-13589 (38999) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.4 | $1.93 | +$1.53 | 57% 22329-16593 (38922) |
Invested
$12.44
Value
$344.96
PnL
+$332.52
Record
25%
1311-3950 (5261)
Invested
$7.34
Value
$104.52
PnL
+$97.19
Record
20%
551-2169 (2720)
Invested
$7.46
Value
$43.89
PnL
+$36.42
Record
48%
70219-75923 (146142)
Invested
$19
Value
$11.69
PnL
-$5.8
Record
57%
60635-45670 (106305)
SilentSharkCTR<$100Invested
$0.5
Value
$9.63
PnL
+$9.13
Record
59%
196-139 (335)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$12.5
Value
$7.69
PnL
-$3.81
Record
59%
52299-37045 (89344)
Invested
$10.1
Value
$3.89
PnL
-$6.11
Record
65%
25410-13589 (38999)
Invested
$0.4
Value
$1.93
PnL
+$1.53
Record
57%
22329-16593 (38922)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.