Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 59¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 10
⚖️
Neutral
Under
5
Under 20%
$1.5K
$103.66
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
462h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MI MinevaJCTR | Overavg 18.6¢ | $344.06 | $767.75 | +$423.69 | 57% 1048-784 (1832) |
 ER72SEN | Underavg 91.5¢ | $986.08 | $630.16 | -$355.92 | 67% 316-153 (469) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 23¢ | $1.89 | $43.03 | +$26.53 | 48% 8966-9597 (18563) |
FO fooooolCTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $5 | $12.97 | +$7.97 | 50% 11182-10991 (22173) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 25¢ | $2.1 | $3.49 | +$1.39 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$344.06
Value
$767.75
PnL
+$423.69
Record
57%
1048-784 (1832)
ER72SENInvested
$986.08
Value
$630.16
PnL
-$355.92
Record
67%
316-153 (469)
Invested
$1.89
Value
$43.03
PnL
+$26.53
Record
48%
8966-9597 (18563)
Invested
$5
Value
$12.97
PnL
+$7.97
Record
50%
11182-10991 (22173)
Invested
$2.1
Value
$3.49
PnL
+$1.39
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.