Real Racing Club vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 0.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 80%
$6.3K
$-1.1K
98.4¢ → 100¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 98.3¢ | $4.6K | $4.7K | +$76.42 | 50% 25666-25500 (51166) |
UP UpTheBlues | Overavg 98.7¢ | $2.5K | $1.5K | $-1.0K | 59% 46920-33175 (80095) |
LO lonmi2511 | Overavg 98.2¢ | $268.09 | $158.34 | -$109.75 | 62% 1191-725 (1916) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 98.7¢ | $14.61 | $14.8 | +$0.19 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $7.2 | $0.17 | -$6.69 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$4,574
Value
$4.7K
PnL
+$76.42
Record
50%
25666-25500 (51166)
Invested
$2,497.11
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
59%
46920-33175 (80095)
Invested
$268.09
Value
$158.34
PnL
-$109.75
Record
62%
1191-725 (1916)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$14.61
Value
$14.8
PnL
+$0.19
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$0.17
PnL
-$6.69
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.