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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $4K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$3.9K
$147.84
93¢ → 97¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1309h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AF aff3 | Noavg 92¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$142.6 | 80% 171-44 (215) |
QM QMG-CORE | Noavg 95.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$20.62 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 SlowroastedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $22.5 | $7.38 | -$15.13 | 88% 1990-279 (2269) |
 yen4u<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $4.69 | $4.84 | +$0.15 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
AV aviatoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1 | $0.59 | -$0.41 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
Invested
$2,597.89
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$142.6
Record
80%
171-44 (215)
Invested
$1,160.53
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$20.62
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
SlowroastedCTR<$100Invested
$22.5
Value
$7.38
PnL
-$15.13
Record
88%
1990-279 (2269)
yen4u<$100Invested
$4.69
Value
$4.84
PnL
+$0.15
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$0.41
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.