Consensus PnL $264K · win rate 78% (158–44, n=202) · was PM monthly #946 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$263.7K
Record
158W / 44L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 202 settled
Batting Avg
35.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#501
Source
PM monthly #946 + pinned
Trades
2,905
Markets
284
Volume
$6.4M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 11 on the consensus side (91%)- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?No $271K · now 96¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (61% of 28)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $218K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $54K · now 95¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $20K · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $17K · now 94¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (42% of 31)
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026?No $14K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (71% of 14)
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?No $2.7K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.8K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (40% of 36)
Specialties
263 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 86¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 94% of 104 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +3%
- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 79% of 42 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +1%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 90% of 42 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Tennis — held side won 83% of 23 at an average 84¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 8% of 12)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 100% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 57% of 14)
- 70¢ and up: 88%(won 95% of 232)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.