Consensus PnL $27K · win rate 91% (1696–167, n=1863) · hand-picked wallet · holds 42 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.7K
Record
1696W / 167L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 1863 settled
Batting Avg
54.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#218
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
29,466
Markets
2,559
Volume
$14.4M
Top consensus positions
42 in listed consensus markets · 35 of 42 on the consensus side (83%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $4.7K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $4.6K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $2.5K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (85% of 40)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $2.4K · now 97¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $2.4K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will Venezuela become 51st state?No $2.1K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?No $2.1K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $1.5K · now 100¢ · in at 93¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
2,039 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 92¢- Finance
+2 pts
side won 95% of 109 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +1%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 94% of 93 · avg entry 91¢
ROI 0%
- Tech
+5 pts
side won 100% of 26 · avg entry 95¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Esports — held side won 98% of 83 at an average 99¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 7% of 121)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 20% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 55% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 92%(won 99% of 1881)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.