Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will FK Transinvest vs. FK Kauno Zalgiris end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 26¢ · $27 held · ends Nov 8

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$27.17

Combined PnL

-$0.03

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$14.67

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$0.15

No2 traders

Total Value$12.5

Total Shares17

Combined PnL+$0.12

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.4¢	$11.47	$11.43	+$0	51% 27227-25781 (53008)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Noavg 75¢	$10	$10.06	+$0.07	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 74¢	$2.39	$2.44	+$0.05	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$2.17	$2.02	-$0.15	50% 21550-21844 (43394)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.23	+$0	50% 26409-26025 (52434)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.47

Value

$11.43

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

27227-25781 (53008)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Invested

$10

Value

$10.06

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$2.44

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.17

Value

$2.02

PnL

-$0.15

Record

50%

21550-21844 (43394)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.23

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

26409-26025 (52434)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance27.5%

25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$263.98

Max Loss

-$100.00

364.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.