Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will AS FAR vs. Raja Club Athletic end in a draw?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $130 held · ended Nov 4

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$130.29

Combined PnL

-$9.39

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$89.39

Total Shares129

Combined PnL-$9.61

Yes3 traders

Total Value$40.74

Total Shares140

Combined PnL+$0.22

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 74.7¢	$94.87	$85.67	-$9.2	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$23.31	$22.5	-$0.81	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.6¢	$13.91	$13.62	-$0.29	50% 20743-20989 (41732)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$3.3	$4.62	+$1.32	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 75¢	$4.13	$3.72	-$0.41	51% 7653-7369 (15022)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$94.87

Value

$85.67

PnL

-$9.2

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$23.31

Value

$22.5

PnL

-$0.81

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.91

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$0.29

Record

50%

20743-20989 (41732)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$1.32

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$3.72

PnL

-$0.41

Record

51%

7653-7369 (15022)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.