Will Piratas Veracruz win on 2026-11-11?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 52¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 67%
$1.3K
$6.96
51¢ → 51.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Yesavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$7.54 | 51% 1822-1783 (3605) |
MA MadridTime | Yesavg 51¢ | $150.78 | $150.78 | +$0 | 31% 375-842 (1217) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $99 | $99 | +$0 | 56% 1553-1230 (2783) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $14.62 | $14.04 | -$0.58 | 37% 340-569 (909) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $4.37 | $4.37 | +$0 | 30% 372-863 (1235) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.32 | +$0 | 30% 376-862 (1238) |
Invested
$1,027.69
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$7.54
Record
51%
1822-1783 (3605)
Invested
$150.78
Value
$150.78
PnL
+$0
Record
31%
375-842 (1217)
Invested
$99
Value
$99
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1553-1230 (2783)
Invested
$14.62
Value
$14.04
PnL
-$0.58
Record
37%
340-569 (909)
Invested
$4.37
Value
$4.37
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
372-863 (1235)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
376-862 (1238)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.