Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (62%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 38¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$3.5K
$165.17
57.9¢ → 38¢
-34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 38%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 62%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
448h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 eCash | Noavg 41.2¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$993.31 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
 theta-thunbergCTR | Yesavg 60.8¢ | $1.5K | $874.61 | -$623.92 | 56% 429-337 (766) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR | Yesavg 53.4¢ | $788.06 | $524.37 | -$263.68 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 46.5¢ | $211.4 | $282.71 | +$71.31 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 53.8¢ | $50 | $33 | -$17 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
 BigMackyG<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $5.07 | $10.46 | +$5.15 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
eCashInvested
$1,793.29
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$993.31
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$1,498.53
Value
$874.61
PnL
-$623.92
Record
56%
429-337 (766)
cambridgeisaacCTRInvested
$788.06
Value
$524.37
PnL
-$263.68
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$211.4
Value
$282.71
PnL
+$71.31
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$50
Value
$33
PnL
-$17
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
BigMackyG<$100Invested
$5.07
Value
$10.46
PnL
+$5.15
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.