Consensus PnL $286K · win rate 72% (331–127, n=458) · was PM monthly #971 · holds 43 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$286.4K
Record
331W / 127L
Win Rate
72.0%
of 458 settled
Batting Avg
60.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#660
Source
PM monthly #971
Trades
1,800
Markets
618
Volume
$8.5M
Top consensus positions
43 in listed consensus markets · 34 of 43 on the consensus side (79%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $56K · now 84¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $39K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Yes $30K · now 68¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (56% of 17)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $27K · now 87¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $26K · now 98¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?No $24K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $23K · now 89¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $21K · now 91¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
Specialties
478 settled consensus markets · held side won 70% at an average entry of 64¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 80% of 208 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +2%
- Elections
+9 pts
side won 57% of 63 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +7%
- Crypto
+13 pts
side won 63% of 27 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 14%(won 13% of 69)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 48% of 65)
- 50–70¢: 20%(won 78% of 96)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 89% of 248)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.