Will Nashville SC win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (20%) · Yes at 65¢ · $544 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 20%
$543.83
-$1.58
Research grade
NeutralYes at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
54h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 fyrsken | Yesavg 65.5¢ | $344.99 | $338.99 | -$6 | 49% 290-305 (595) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 35¢ | $144.04 | $144.04 | +$2.06 | 58% 42698-31074 (73772) |
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100 | Noavg 34.1¢ | $41.17 | $42.87 | +$1.7 | 72% 6830-2625 (9455) |
HI hi774cCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $13.6 | $14 | +$0.6 | 51% 4818-4540 (9358) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Noavg 35¢ | $3.93 | $3.93 | +$0.06 | 53% 5640-5054 (10694) |
fyrskenInvested
$344.99
Value
$338.99
PnL
-$6
Record
49%
290-305 (595)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$144.04
Value
$144.04
PnL
+$2.06
Record
58%
42698-31074 (73772)
Invested
$41.17
Value
$42.87
PnL
+$1.7
Record
72%
6830-2625 (9455)
Invested
$13.6
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.6
Record
51%
4818-4540 (9358)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.93
Value
$3.93
PnL
+$0.06
Record
53%
5640-5054 (10694)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.