NATO dissolves before 2027?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$7.2K
$442.95
92¢ → 97.9¢
+6% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 55%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.1K | +$145.03 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
KR Krass | Noavg 92.4¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$112.58 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 Imbafer | Noavg 90¢ | $1.3K | $1.5K | +$117.75 | 56% 238-189 (427) |
 Car | Noavg 93¢ | $988.81 | $1.0K | +$53.23 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
0X 0x333e8f4fb0353ef31cf1a7d00789e1319381369b | Noavg 96.5¢ | $627.8 | $637.13 | +$9.33 | 97% 140-4 (144) |
 Trading4Fridge<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $80.44 | $83.66 | +$5.04 | 58% 928-661 (1589) |
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$1,934.59
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$145.03
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Invested
$1,817.01
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$112.58
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
ImbaferInvested
$1,349.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$117.75
Record
56%
238-189 (427)
CarInvested
$988.81
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$53.23
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$627.8
Value
$637.13
PnL
+$9.33
Record
97%
140-4 (144)
Trading4Fridge<$100Invested
$80.44
Value
$83.66
PnL
+$5.04
Record
58%
928-661 (1589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.