Consensus PnL $64K · win rate 56% (454–364, n=818) · hand-picked wallet · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$63.7K
Record
454W / 364L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 818 settled
Batting Avg
55.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1388
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
44,090
Markets
1,761
Volume
$4.0M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 21 on the consensus side (29%)- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Yes $322 · now 16¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- NATO dissolves before 2027?No $84 · now 98¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?Yes $83 · now 6¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (No)
- Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $64 · now 0¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $61 · now 3¢ · in at 28¢against the consensus (No)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes $58 · now 12¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?Yes $58 · now 17¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?No $53 · now 19¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,085 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 48¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 55% of 199 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +4%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 58% of 65 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +1%
- Tech
+8 pts
side won 60% of 42 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 28% of 53 at an average 38¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI −11%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 35%(won 13% of 379)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 35% of 179)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 63% of 193)
- 70¢ and up: 31%(won 93% of 334)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.