Consensus PnL $44K · win rate 56% (194–151, n=345) · hand-picked wallet · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$44.3K
Record
194W / 151L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 345 settled
Batting Avg
57.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1400
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
6,554
Markets
469
Volume
$876.0K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 18 on the consensus side (83%)- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $43K · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $24K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $8.3K · now 92¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- NATO dissolves before 2027?No $1.5K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?No $1.1K · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $1.1K · now 65¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?No $944 · now 93¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?No $485 · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
Specialties
370 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 43¢- Geopolitics
+15 pts
side won 60% of 177 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +8%
- Soccer
+33 pts
side won 73% of 11 · avg entry 40¢
ROI +30%
- Mentions
+24 pts
side won 68% of 22 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +33%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 34% of 41 at an average 36¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 45%(won 19% of 167)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 63% of 46)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 81% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 96% of 100)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.