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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 95¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$3.8K
-$1.34
95.8¢ → 95¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 78%
Freshness
Late
700h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 96.1¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | -$18.03 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
 Porx | Noavg 95.9¢ | $1.0K | $998.36 | -$9.13 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
 Car | Noavg 95.1¢ | $726.85 | $726.38 | -$0.47 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 viniiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.6¢ | $72.55 | $98.99 | +$26.44 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 95.2¢ | $95.19 | $95.04 | -$0.15 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
Invested
$1,910.59
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$18.03
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
PorxInvested
$1,007.49
Value
$998.36
PnL
-$9.13
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
CarInvested
$726.85
Value
$726.38
PnL
-$0.47
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
viniiCTR<$100Invested
$72.55
Value
$98.99
PnL
+$26.44
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
Talophex<$100Invested
$95.19
Value
$95.04
PnL
-$0.15
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.