Consensus PnL $38K · win rate 92% (780–68, n=848) · hand-picked wallet · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$38.4K
Record
780W / 68L
Win Rate
92.0%
of 848 settled
Batting Avg
85.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#202
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,440
Markets
1,170
Volume
$1.8M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 80 of 84 on the consensus side (95%)- US military draft authorized in 2026?No $20K · now 97¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Iran nuclear test before 2027?No $9.7K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (77% of 13)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $9.3K · now 84¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?No $9.2K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?No $7.4K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (66% of 33)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $6.6K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?No $6.4K · now 92¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (89% of 19)
Specialties
919 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 93¢- Finance
+3 pts
side won 100% of 150 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 96% of 237 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +2%
- Entertainment
+4 pts
side won 100% of 15 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 83% of 162 at an average 86¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 11% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 75% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 45% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 96%(won 97% of 881)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.