Spread: Pacers (-2.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (80%) · Pacers at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1

Pacers56¢Nets44¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Pacers

Consensus Traders

Pacers 80%

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$14.57

Smart Money Entry

54.3¢ → 55.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Pacers56%

Nets45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets1 trader

Total Value$966.99

Total Shares2,173

Combined PnL-$32.6

Pacers4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,042

Combined PnL+$18.03

Nets — 20%Pacers — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Netsavg 46¢	$999.58	$966.99	-$32.6	53% 4278-3736 (8014)
HO HomeRunHazard	Pacersavg 54.3¢	$912.51	$907.59	+$20.29	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888	Pacersavg 54¢	$178.76	$177.12	-$1.64	58% 42698-31074 (73772)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pacersavg 56¢	$15.68	$15.12	-$0.7	57% 29237-21620 (50857)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Pacersavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.7	+$0.08	52% 7503-6793 (14296)

takeormakeCTR

Nets

Invested

$999.58

Value

$966.99

PnL

-$32.6

Record

53%

4278-3736 (8014)

HomeRunHazard

Pacers

Invested

$912.51

Value

$907.59

PnL

+$20.29

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

VeryLucky888

Pacers

Invested

$178.76

Value

$177.12

PnL

-$1.64

Record

58%

42698-31074 (73772)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pacers

Invested

$15.68

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$0.7

Record

57%

29237-21620 (50857)

ameisgoat11<$100

Pacers

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.7

PnL

+$0.08

Record

52%

7503-6793 (14296)

Research grade

AvoidPacers at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Pacers

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Pacers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.