Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (57%) · Nets at 88¢ · $508 held · ended Nov 12

Pelicans13¢Nets87¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 57%

Total Value

$508.39

Combined PnL

-$16.21

Smart Money Entry

66.8¢ → 87.5¢

+31% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans13%

Nets88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$468.39

Total Shares635

Combined PnL-$3.46

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$40

Total Shares235

Combined PnL-$12.75

Nets — 57%Pelicans — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Netsavg 60.5¢	$289.67	$240.85	-$4.42	48% 1427-1570 (2997)
65 6512395314597884	Netsavg 81¢	$162	$162	+$0	50% 3301-3257 (6558)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Netsavg 61¢	$40.69	$40.94	+$0.25	47% 299-342 (641)
RN1CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 19¢	$38	$26	-$12	57% 4059-3077 (7136)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Netsavg 58.3¢	$23.89	$24.6	+$0.71	57% 3229-2433 (5662)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 43¢	$10.75	$10	-$0.75	49% 692-733 (1425)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 40¢	$4	$4	-$0	30% 401-920 (1321)

38791873984189

Nets

Invested

$289.67

Value

$240.85

PnL

-$4.42

Record

48%

1427-1570 (2997)

6512395314597884

Nets

Invested

$162

Value

$162

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

3301-3257 (6558)

SnakeBall<$100

Nets

Invested

$40.69

Value

$40.94

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

299-342 (641)

RN1CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$38

Value

$26

PnL

-$12

Record

57%

4059-3077 (7136)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Nets

Invested

$23.89

Value

$24.6

PnL

+$0.71

Record

57%

3229-2433 (5662)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$10.75

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.75

Record

49%

692-733 (1425)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

Value

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

401-920 (1321)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNets 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.