Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 230.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 56¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 40%
$1.4K
$10.48
54¢ → 55.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 53.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$19.85 | 57% 3183-2408 (5591) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46.5¢ | $238.03 | $230.53 | -$7.5 | 52% 422-389 (811) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $65.32 | $63.9 | -$1.42 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $14.77 | $14.77 | +$0 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $15.45 | $8.25 | -$0.45 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
Invested
$1,015.83
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$19.85
Record
57%
3183-2408 (5591)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$238.03
Value
$230.53
PnL
-$7.5
Record
52%
422-389 (811)
Invested
$65.32
Value
$63.9
PnL
-$1.42
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$14.77
Value
$14.77
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$15.45
Value
$8.25
PnL
-$0.45
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.