Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Celtics (51%). 3 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-6.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (100%) · Magic at 50¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
3
Magic 100%
2 arb excluded
$5.7K
-$18.88
49.5¢ → 49.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 51%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Celticsavg 49.7¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$45 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 49.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$23 | |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 48¢ | $703.8 | $718.46 | +$21.99 | |
HE HerdoniaARB<$100 | Celticsavg 50.1¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$15.08 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 50.1¢ | $982.56 | $989.87 | +$7.31 | |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 48.6¢ | $440.41 | $448.18 | +$7.77 | |
 ComingBackCTR | Magicavg 49¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$11.12 | 61% 3965-2495 (6460) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Magicavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $970 | -$30 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 49¢ | $38.64 | $38.64 | -$0 | 57% 29237-21620 (50857) |
Invested
$2,142.3
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$45
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,422.97
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$15.08
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Both legs:
ComingBackCTRInvested
$1,089.76
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$11.12
Record
61%
3965-2495 (6460)
Invested
$1,000
Value
$970
PnL
-$30
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
Invested
$38.64
Value
$38.64
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
29237-21620 (50857)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.