Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 61% (3977–2523, n=6500) · was PM monthly #974 · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$76.4K
Record
3977W / 2523L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 6500 settled
Batting Avg
42.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1098
Source
PM monthly #974
Trades
8,631
Markets
9,050
Volume
$32.1M
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 3 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $62K · now 95¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $1.7K · now 77¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Nets vs. PacersPacers $1.6K · now 62¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (54% of 15)
Specialties
7,547 settled consensus markets · held side won 73% at an average entry of 65¢- MLB
+15 pts
side won 68% of 1269 · avg entry 53¢
ROI +14%
- Soccer
+14 pts
side won 80% of 1640 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +13%
- Tennis
+11 pts
side won 84% of 207 · avg entry 73¢
ROI +13%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 80% of 123 at an average 87¢ entry (−6 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 23% of 77)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 56% of 1748)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 67% of 2819)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 89% of 2903)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.