Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 76ers, while the market favors Celtics (58%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Celtics (-13.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold 76ers (60%) · 76ers at 42¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Celtics58¢76ers42¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

76ers

Consensus Traders

76ers 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

$1.2K

Smart Money Entry

77.1¢ → 42¢

-46% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics58%

76ers42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

76ers3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,612

Combined PnL+$241.21

Celtics2 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,840

Combined PnL+$991.16

76ers — 60%Celtics — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	76ersavg 77.8¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$238.47	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375	Celticsavg 24.7¢	$720.45	$1.7K	+$1.0K	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1ARB<$100	76ersavg 41¢	$174.51	$285.68	+$111.17	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 22.6¢	$69.14	$180.31	+$111.17
└ 76ers leg	76ersavg 41¢	$105.37	$105.37	-$0
TA takeormake	Celticsavg 19.3¢	$179.01	$157.76	-$21.25	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	76ersavg 78¢	$35.45	$37.73	+$2.27	56% 502-393 (895)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	76ersavg 40¢	$18.41	$18.87	+$0.46	54% 1660-1438 (3098)

FlaznorpCTR

76ers

Invested

$2,049.69

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$238.47

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375

Celtics

Invested

$720.45

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1ARB<$100

76ers

Invested

$174.51

Value

$285.68

PnL

+$111.17

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

Both legs:

Celtics$69.1422.6¢+$111.17

76ers$105.3741¢-$0

takeormake

Celtics

Invested

$179.01

Value

$157.76

PnL

-$21.25

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$35.45

Value

$37.73

PnL

+$2.27

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

76ers

Invested

$18.41

Value

$18.87

PnL

+$0.46

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Research grade

Avoid76ers at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

76ers

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 58%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on 76ers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedCeltics 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 76ers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.2%

42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$126.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

226.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.