Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors 76ers (53%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-1.5)
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (50%) · Celtics at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
8
Celtics 50%
$3.8K
$2.26
48.1¢ → 47.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors 76ers 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PU purplegattoCTR | Celticsavg 48¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$18.24 | 69% 2572-1165 (3737) |
HO HomeRunHazard | 76ersavg 52¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$14.23 | 57% 3070-2308 (5378) |
NM NM-P | 76ersavg 52¢ | $198.79 | $200.18 | +$1.4 | 60% 3439-2335 (5774) |
FL Flaznorp | 76ersavg 49¢ | $120.54 | $127.92 | +$7.38 | 50% 1378-1394 (2772) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Celticsavg 50¢ | $122.5 | $117.6 | -$4.9 | 59% 3118-2207 (5325) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Celticsavg 48.4¢ | $180.82 | $87.39 | +$0.16 | 48% 709-765 (1474) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | 76ersavg 49¢ | $40.48 | $42.96 | +$2.48 | 47% 147-166 (313) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 48.3¢ | $36.25 | $36 | -$0.25 | 48% 405-439 (844) |
Invested
$1,750.56
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$18.24
Record
69%
2572-1165 (3737)
Invested
$1,480
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$14.23
Record
57%
3070-2308 (5378)
Invested
$198.79
Value
$200.18
PnL
+$1.4
Record
60%
3439-2335 (5774)
Invested
$120.54
Value
$127.92
PnL
+$7.38
Record
50%
1378-1394 (2772)
Invested
$122.5
Value
$117.6
PnL
-$4.9
Record
59%
3118-2207 (5325)
Invested
$180.82
Value
$87.39
PnL
+$0.16
Record
48%
709-765 (1474)
Invested
$40.48
Value
$42.96
PnL
+$2.48
Record
47%
147-166 (313)
Invested
$36.25
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.25
Record
48%
405-439 (844)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.