Spread: 76ers (-4.5)
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (29%) · Celtics at 83¢ · $989 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 29%
$988.55
-$17.63
74.3¢ → 83¢
+12% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Celticsavg 74.1¢ | $436.15 | $458.96 | +$22.81 | 58% 3802-2784 (6586) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Celticsavg 74.7¢ | $309.26 | $316.9 | +$7.64 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | 76ersavg 25.8¢ | $149.4 | $127.16 | -$22.24 | 50% 1504-1508 (3012) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | 76ersavg 25¢ | $62.5 | $51.25 | -$11.25 | 48% 949-1019 (1968) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 37¢ | $42.23 | $29.55 | -$12.69 | 48% 190-206 (396) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 30.9¢ | $4.89 | $3.48 | -$1.4 | 49% 444-470 (914) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | 76ersavg 35¢ | $1.75 | $1.25 | -$0.5 | 28% 275-716 (991) |
RN1Invested
$436.15
Value
$458.96
PnL
+$22.81
Record
58%
3802-2784 (6586)
Invested
$309.26
Value
$316.9
PnL
+$7.64
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$149.4
Value
$127.16
PnL
-$22.24
Record
50%
1504-1508 (3012)
Invested
$62.5
Value
$51.25
PnL
-$11.25
Record
48%
949-1019 (1968)
Invested
$42.23
Value
$29.55
PnL
-$12.69
Record
48%
190-206 (396)
Invested
$4.89
Value
$3.48
PnL
-$1.4
Record
49%
444-470 (914)
Invested
$1.75
Value
$1.25
PnL
-$0.5
Record
28%
275-716 (991)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.