Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 197.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 88¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 100%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
$27.08
87.1¢ → 88¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 88%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 87.7¢ | $812.64 | $815.48 | +$2.84 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 86.3¢ | $718.95 | $485.5 | +$20 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
FO forecastication4ARB<$100 | Overavg 87¢ | $422.74 | $464.25 | +$41.51 | 11% 24-189 (213) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 87¢ | $262.74 | $264.25 | +$1.51 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 10¢ | $160 | $200 | +$40 | |
DA darkumbreon88 | Overavg 87¢ | $149.81 | $150.67 | +$0.86 | 61% 899-577 (1476) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Overavg 86¢ | $90.83 | $92.42 | +$1.58 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 86.3¢ | $107.91 | $91.88 | +$1.56 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 86.4¢ | $17.55 | $16.6 | +$0.23 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
Invested
$812.64
Value
$815.48
PnL
+$2.84
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$718.95
Value
$485.5
PnL
+$20
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$422.74
Value
$464.25
PnL
+$41.51
Record
11%
24-189 (213)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.81
Value
$150.67
PnL
+$0.86
Record
61%
899-577 (1476)
Invested
$90.83
Value
$92.42
PnL
+$1.58
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$107.91
Value
$91.88
PnL
+$1.56
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$17.55
Value
$16.6
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.