Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 43¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$21.33

Smart Money Entry

43.5¢ → 43¢

-1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,639

Combined PnL+$32.61

Over2 traders

Total Value$616.33

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL-$11.28

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR	Underavg 45¢	$818.18	$827.27	+$9.09	54% 217-188 (405)
RN1CTR	Underavg 44.9¢	$780.11	$790.56	+$10.45	58% 3802-2784 (6586)
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 58¢	$577.47	$478.31	-$15.17	50% 1504-1508 (3012)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 47¢	$474.21	$460.86	-$13.35	51% 3172-3072 (6244)
└ Under leg	Underavg 47¢	$328.99	$314.99	-$14
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.8¢	$145.22	$145.87	+$0.65
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 39¢	$402.36	$417.84	+$15.48	48% 190-206 (396)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 57.8¢	$134.13	$138.02	+$3.89	56% 488-383 (871)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 39¢	$144.85	$128.36	+$16.36	48% 949-1019 (1968)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39¢	$77.88	$89.86	+$16.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$38.5	$38.5	+$0
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$25.93	$26.87	+$0.94	54% 383-322 (705)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$47.58	$19.53	-$2.35	49% 444-470 (914)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.34	$2.34	-$1	28% 279-704 (983)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR

Under

Invested

$818.18

Value

$827.27

PnL

+$9.09

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$780.11

Value

$790.56

PnL

+$10.45

Record

58%

3802-2784 (6586)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$577.47

Value

$478.31

PnL

-$15.17

Record

50%

1504-1508 (3012)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$474.21

Value

$460.86

PnL

-$13.35

Record

51%

3172-3072 (6244)

Both legs:

Under$328.9947¢-$14

Over$145.2254.8¢+$0.65

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$402.36

Value

$417.84

PnL

+$15.48

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$134.13

Value

$138.02

PnL

+$3.89

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$144.85

Value

$128.36

PnL

+$16.36

Record

48%

949-1019 (1968)

Both legs:

Under$77.8839¢+$16.36

Over$38.555¢+$0

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$25.93

Value

$26.87

PnL

+$0.94

Record

54%

383-322 (705)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.58

Value

$19.53

PnL

-$2.35

Record

49%

444-470 (914)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.34

Value

$2.34

PnL

-$1

Record

28%

279-704 (983)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.