Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 227.5

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (71%) · Under at 75¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$11.91

Smart Money Entry

65.2¢ → 75¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares4,744

Combined PnL-$22.02

Over2 traders

Total Value$353.91

Total Shares1,262

Combined PnL+$10.11

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 62.7¢	$2.2K	$2.4K	+$123.24	56% 502-393 (895)
RN1	Underavg 74.6¢	$934.27	$743.27	-$191	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 61.5¢	$560.42	$559.26	+$32.88	48% 959-1032 (1991)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Underavg 64.7¢	$438.88	$412.96	-$25.92	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.7¢	$268.7	$280.13	+$11.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.6¢	$170.18	$132.84	-$37.35
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$337.7	$346.54	+$8.84	54% 1660-1438 (3098)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$235.17	$243.69	+$8.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 41.9¢	$102.53	$102.85	+$0.32
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 27.3¢	$326.19	$334.99	+$8.8	50% 1558-1564 (3122)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 67.1¢	$97.9	$46.77	+$2.87	49% 446-472 (918)
BI biying88888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$26.5	$36.5	+$10	27% 63-170 (233)
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$17.61	$18.91	+$1.3	54% 217-188 (405)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$2,245.68

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$123.24

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

RN1

Under

Invested

$934.27

Value

$743.27

PnL

-$191

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$560.42

Value

$559.26

PnL

+$32.88

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$438.88

Value

$412.96

PnL

-$25.92

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Both legs:

Under$268.764.7¢+$11.43

Over$170.1841.6¢-$37.35

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Under

Invested

$337.7

Value

$346.54

PnL

+$8.84

Record

54%

1660-1438 (3098)

Both legs:

Under$235.1756¢+$8.51

Over$102.5341.9¢+$0.32

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$326.19

Value

$334.99

PnL

+$8.8

Record

50%

1558-1564 (3122)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$97.9

Value

$46.77

PnL

+$2.87

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

biying88888<$100

Under

Invested

$26.5

Value

$36.5

PnL

+$10

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.61

Value

$18.91

PnL

+$1.3

Record

54%

217-188 (405)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 75%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.9%

75.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.