Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 231.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 80¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Over21¢Under79¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$20.56

Smart Money Entry

79.2¢ → 79.5¢

+0% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over21%

Under80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,449

Combined PnL+$26.7

Over4 traders

Total Value$262.3

Total Shares1,279

Combined PnL-$6.14

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 80¢	$554.91	$561.06	+$6.15	52% 128-119 (247)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 78.4¢	$490.17	$465.49	+$15.43	48% 939-1010 (1949)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 78.4¢	$130.4	$128.99	+$3.99	49% 440-464 (904)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 21¢	$99.62	$97.25	-$2.37	26% 234-663 (897)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$76.17	$70.98	-$5.19	25% 228-679 (907)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 19.2¢	$56.93	$60.79	+$3.86	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 78.8¢	$57.31	$58.44	+$1.13	54% 358-310 (668)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 22¢	$35.72	$33.28	-$2.44	26% 234-672 (906)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$554.91

Value

$561.06

PnL

+$6.15

Record

52%

128-119 (247)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$490.17

Value

$465.49

PnL

+$15.43

Record

48%

939-1010 (1949)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$130.4

Value

$128.99

PnL

+$3.99

Record

49%

440-464 (904)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$99.62

Value

$97.25

PnL

-$2.37

Record

26%

234-663 (897)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$76.17

Value

$70.98

PnL

-$5.19

Record

25%

228-679 (907)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$56.93

Value

$60.79

PnL

+$3.86

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$57.31

Value

$58.44

PnL

+$1.13

Record

54%

358-310 (668)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.72

Value

$33.28

PnL

-$2.44

Record

26%

234-672 (906)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 80%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.