Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 233.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 83¢ · $989 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$989.46
$1
83.5¢ → 83¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 16¢ | $273.8 | $289.26 | +$15.46 | 50% 1433-1435 (2868) |
PU purplegatto | Underavg 84¢ | $260.93 | $257.82 | -$3.11 | 69% 2573-1166 (3739) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 84¢ | $225.96 | $217.89 | -$8.07 | 52% 128-119 (247) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Underavg 81¢ | $80.39 | $82.37 | +$1.98 | 49% 79-83 (162) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Overavg 18.9¢ | $64.02 | $57.6 | -$6.42 | 26% 234-653 (887) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 84¢ | $46.2 | $45.65 | -$0.55 | 49% 440-464 (904) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 80.6¢ | $35.15 | $32.16 | +$1.64 | 54% 358-310 (668) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $3.4 | $3.8 | +$0.4 | 48% 939-1010 (1949) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 19¢ | $3.24 | $2.9 | -$0.34 | 25% 228-679 (907) |
Invested
$273.8
Value
$289.26
PnL
+$15.46
Record
50%
1433-1435 (2868)
Invested
$260.93
Value
$257.82
PnL
-$3.11
Record
69%
2573-1166 (3739)
nigiri99Invested
$225.96
Value
$217.89
PnL
-$8.07
Record
52%
128-119 (247)
Invested
$80.39
Value
$82.37
PnL
+$1.98
Record
49%
79-83 (162)
Invested
$64.02
Value
$57.6
PnL
-$6.42
Record
26%
234-653 (887)
Invested
$46.2
Value
$45.65
PnL
-$0.55
Record
49%
440-464 (904)
Invested
$35.15
Value
$32.16
PnL
+$1.64
Record
54%
358-310 (668)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.8
PnL
+$0.4
Record
48%
939-1010 (1949)
Invested
$3.24
Value
$2.9
PnL
-$0.34
Record
25%
228-679 (907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.