Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Raptors, while the market favors Celtics (53%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (71%) · Raptors at 48¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
7
Raptors 71%
$1.9K
$21.79
46.3¢ → 47.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 53%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTimeCTR | Raptorsavg 47¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$13.89 | 31% 376-842 (1218) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Celticsavg 52¢ | $395.41 | $399.22 | +$3.8 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Raptorsavg 42.6¢ | $186.35 | $190.18 | +$3.83 | 51% 1822-1784 (3606) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 43¢ | $27.98 | $28.3 | +$0.33 | 37% 340-570 (910) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 47¢ | $4.43 | $4.48 | +$0.05 | 48% 659-706 (1365) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Celticsavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $2.82 | -$0.03 | 32% 282-611 (893) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Raptorsavg 45¢ | $2.25 | $2.18 | -$0.08 | 30% 377-862 (1239) |
Invested
$1,305.57
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$13.89
Record
31%
376-842 (1218)
Invested
$395.41
Value
$399.22
PnL
+$3.8
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$186.35
Value
$190.18
PnL
+$3.83
Record
51%
1822-1784 (3606)
Invested
$27.98
Value
$28.3
PnL
+$0.33
Record
37%
340-570 (910)
Invested
$4.43
Value
$4.48
PnL
+$0.05
Record
48%
659-706 (1365)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$2.82
PnL
-$0.03
Record
32%
282-611 (893)
Invested
$2.25
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.08
Record
30%
377-862 (1239)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.