Spread: Raptors (-5.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 68¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Raptors33¢Celtics67¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$156.31

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 67.5¢

-13% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors33%

Celtics68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,632

Combined PnL-$180.95

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$532.33

Total Shares2,346

Combined PnL+$24.64

Celtics — 57%Raptors — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Celticsavg 77.8¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$182.15	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Celticsavg 79.5¢	$466.56	$390.27	-$11.62	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 79.5¢	$313.31	$301.32	-$14.12
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 22.8¢	$86.45	$88.95	+$2.5
65 6512395314597884CTR	Raptorsavg 23¢	$321.99	$314.99	-$7	50% 3299-3255 (6554)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Celticsavg 77¢	$262.44	$267.55	+$5.11	55% 718-583 (1301)
LI LimousinCTR	Raptorsavg 18.6¢	$162.96	$196.83	+$33.87	30% 399-910 (1309)
SE sentrio	Celticsavg 80.2¢	$117.85	$113.93	-$3.92	39% 382-610 (992)
RN1<$100	Celticsavg 77¢	$53.13	$53.13	+$0	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 23¢	$95.89	$20.52	-$2.23	49% 684-724 (1408)

Flaznorp

Celtics

Invested

$1,962.14

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$182.15

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$466.56

Value

$390.27

PnL

-$11.62

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

Celtics$313.3179.5¢-$14.12

Raptors$86.4522.8¢+$2.5

6512395314597884CTR

Raptors

Invested

$321.99

Value

$314.99

PnL

-$7

Record

50%

3299-3255 (6554)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Celtics

Invested

$262.44

Value

$267.55

PnL

+$5.11

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

LimousinCTR

Raptors

Invested

$162.96

Value

$196.83

PnL

+$33.87

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

sentrio

Celtics

Invested

$117.85

Value

$113.93

PnL

-$3.92

Record

39%

382-610 (992)

RN1<$100

Celtics

Invested

$53.13

Value

$53.13

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$95.89

Value

$20.52

PnL

-$2.23

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 68%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRaptors 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Celtics 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance69.6%

67.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$43.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

143.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.