Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (83%) · Over at 91¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 5
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 83%
$2.6K
$91.85
59.3¢ → 90.5¢
+53% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 91%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 53.7¢ | $641.38 | $1.0K | +$374.81 | 56% 7896-6221 (14117) |
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 80.2¢ | $1.0K | $667.98 | -$337.97 | 51% 24276-22998 (47274) |
0X 0x9b11866433281ade9f2811dbde8acdefc45f5375 | Overavg 65.2¢ | $363.67 | $426.52 | +$62.85 | 50% 4274-4238 (8512) |
JO JoeyAroyyOO | Overavg 45.1¢ | $316.55 | $308.91 | -$7.64 | 46% 72-83 (155) |
 RN1CTR | Underavg 56¢ | $139.99 | $139.99 | -$0 | 53% 60086-52456 (112542) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $21.05 | $20.85 | -$0.2 | 54% 18039-15168 (33207) |
Invested
$641.38
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$374.81
Record
56%
7896-6221 (14117)
Invested
$1,005.95
Value
$667.98
PnL
-$337.97
Record
51%
24276-22998 (47274)
Invested
$363.67
Value
$426.52
PnL
+$62.85
Record
50%
4274-4238 (8512)
Invested
$316.55
Value
$308.91
PnL
-$7.64
Record
46%
72-83 (155)
RN1CTRInvested
$139.99
Value
$139.99
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
60086-52456 (112542)
Invested
$21.05
Value
$20.85
PnL
-$0.2
Record
54%
18039-15168 (33207)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.