Consensus PnL -$26K · win rate 47% (72–81, n=153) · PM monthly #337 · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-25.9K
Record
72W / 81L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 153 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1384
Source
PM monthly #337
Record (90 d)
91/91 · 100%
Trades
657
Markets
158
Volume
$686.2K
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Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 10 on the consensus side (60%)- Pacers vs. GrizzliesPacers $13K · now 33¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (Grizzlies)
- Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Under $6.8K · now 26¢ · in at 53¢against the consensus (Over)
- Pacers vs. Grizzlies: O/U 230.5Over $5.4K · now 45¢ · in at 46¢against the consensus (Under)
- Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 234.5Over $5.1K · now 61¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (31% of 17)
- Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under $3.9K · now 49¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Over)
- Heat vs. Clippers: O/U 233.5Under $457 · now 52¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (40% of 6)
- Raptors vs. Nuggets: O/U 230.5Under $440 · now 48¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (80% of 6)
- Bulls vs. Knicks: O/U 236.5Over $309 · now 57¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
Specialties
69 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 49¢- NBA
+51 pts
side won 100% of 69 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +53%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 100% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 52%(won 100% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 45%(won 100% of 31)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 1)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.